Department of Neurology, Grodno State Medical University, Gorkogo Str, 80, 230009 Grodno, Belarus.
Stroke. 2011 Nov;42(11):3274-6. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.111.625400. Epub 2011 Aug 11.
Data concerning the long-term prognosis after stroke in low-income and middle-income countries are limited. We aimed to establish survival and dependency at 5 years after a first-ever-in-a-lifetime stroke in Grodno, Belarus.
All residents of Grodno with a suspected acute stroke were registered prospectively and assessed over a period of 12 months in 2001. Patients were followed-up prospectively at 3 and 12 months, and then annually up to 5 years after the index event.
There were 671 cases of first-ever-in-a-lifetime stroke, and follow-up data after 5 years were available for 653 of these patients (97.3%); 18 people (2.7%) were lost to follow-up. One hundred ninety patients (29.1%) died during the first 28 days of stroke. The case fatality rate at 3 months was 32.2% (210/653), at 12 months it was 37.4% (244/653), and at 5 years it was 58.8% (384/653). Of the 269 survivors at 5 years, 130 (48.3%) were independent (modified Rankin score, 0-2), and 139 (51.7%) were disabled (modified Rankin score, ≥3). At 5 years, the cumulative risk of death or disability after first-ever-in-a-lifetime stroke was 80.1% (523/653).
Stroke in Belarus is associated with a very high risk of death or dependency at 5 years.
在中低收入国家，有关中风后长期预后的数据有限。我们旨在确定白俄罗斯格罗德诺市首次发生的中风患者在 5 年后的生存和依赖情况。
2001 年，对格罗德诺市所有疑似急性中风的居民进行前瞻性登记和为期 12 个月的评估。患者在发病后 3 个月和 12 个月进行前瞻性随访，然后每年随访一次，直至发病后 5 年。
共有 671 例首次发生的中风病例，其中 653 例患者（97.3%）可获得 5 年的随访数据；18 人（2.7%）失访。190 例患者（29.1%）在中风后的 28 天内死亡。发病后 3 个月的病死率为 32.2%（210/653），12 个月时为 37.4%（244/653），5 年时为 58.8%（384/653）。在 5 年时的 269 名幸存者中，130 人（48.3%）独立（改良 Rankin 评分 0-2），139 人（51.7%）残疾（改良 Rankin 评分≥3）。首次发生的中风后，5 年内死亡或残疾的累积风险为 80.1%（523/653）。
在白俄罗斯，中风患者在 5 年内死亡或依赖的风险非常高。
