INRA Agro ParisTech, France.
Phytopathology. 2011 Nov;101(11):1346-54. doi: 10.1094/PHYTO-01-11-0024.
Wetness of the host surface is a critical environmental factor for the development of foliar fungal diseases, but it is difficult to estimate the wetness durations required by pathogens for infection when only few experimental data are available. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate wetness duration requirements of foliar fungal pathogens when precise experimental data are not available. The proposed method is based on approximate Bayesian computation. It only requires lower and upper bounds of wetness duration requirements for one or fewer temperatures. We describe the method, show how to apply it to an infection model, and then present a case study on Mycosphaerella nawae, the causal agent of circular leaf spot of persimmon. In this example, the parameters of a simple infection model were estimated using experimental data found in the literature for the pathogen, and the model was applied to assess the risk in a Spanish area recently affected by the disease. The results showed that the probability of successful infection was higher than 0.5 for 32% of the on-site wetness durations recorded in the affected area. Results obtained with simulated data showed that our method was able to improve the estimation of wetness duration requirement. Given the flexibility of the proposed method, we expect it to become adopted for assessing the risk of introduction of exotic fungal plant pathogens.
宿主表面的湿润度是叶部真菌病害发展的一个关键环境因素，但当仅有少量实验数据可用时，很难估计病原体感染所需的湿润持续时间。在本文中，我们提出了一种在没有精确实验数据的情况下估计叶部真菌病原体湿润持续时间要求的方法。该方法基于近似贝叶斯计算。它仅需要一个或更少温度下湿润持续时间要求的下限和上限。我们描述了该方法，展示了如何将其应用于感染模型，然后对柿树圆斑病菌（Mycosphaerella nawae）进行了案例研究，该病菌是柿树圆斑病的病原体。在这个例子中，使用文献中为病原体找到的实验数据来估计简单感染模型的参数，并应用该模型评估最近受到该疾病影响的西班牙地区的风险。结果表明，在受影响地区记录的现场湿润持续时间中，有 32%的成功感染概率高于 0.5。用模拟数据得到的结果表明，我们的方法能够提高湿润持续时间要求的估计。鉴于所提出方法的灵活性，我们预计它将被用于评估引入外来真菌植物病原体的风险。
