[Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of global climate change. VI. Change characteristics of precipitation resource and its possible effect on maize production in Sanjiang Plain of Heilongjiang Province].

Based on the 1959-2007 daily precipitation data and 1983-2007 spring maize phenologyical data, the thresholds of extreme precipitation at different places in Sanjiang Plain of Heilongjiang Province were calculated by percentile method, and, in combining with the indices involving the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation, longest consecutive wet (dry) days, and contribution rate of extreme precipitation, the annual change characteristics of extreme precipitation, quantitative change of different grade precipitation, and distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation at each growth stage of spring maize were analyzed. In 1959-2007, the annual precipitation in Sanjiang Plain showed a slight decreasing trend, and the decreasing amplitude of precipitation days was much larger than that of precipitation. Accordingly, the annual distribution of precipitation tended to be more concentrated. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation declined, and the annual fluctuation of the frequency was bigger than that of the intensity. There was a slight decrease in the proportion of annual extreme precipitation to annual precipitation, but the decreasing tendency was not significant. The annual light rain days had a significant decreasing trend, but the annual moderate and heavy rain days didn't have. During spring maize growth season, the distribution ratio of extreme precipitation from high to low was reproductive growth stage, coexistence stage of vegetative growth and reproductive growth, vegetative growth stage, and premergence stage. There was a significant decrease in the proportion of the precipitation during spring maize growth season to annual precipitation, resulting in an increasing risk of precipitation scarcity during the growth season. The longest consecutive dry days during spring maize growth season showed a significant increasing trend, with the increment averaged 1.1 d x (10a)(-1), while the longest consecutive wet days showed a significant decreasing trend, with the decrement averaged 0.5 d x (10a)(-1). Under natural precipitation, the spring maize drought risk in the study region increased.