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[气候变化背景下中国南方季节性干旱的特征与适应。III. 基于降水距平百分率的中国南方季节性干旱时空特征]

[Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of climate change. III. Spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal drought in southern China based on the percentage of precipitation anomalies].

作者信息

Huang Wan-Hua, Sui Yue, Yang Xiao-Guang, Dai Shu-Wei, Li Mao-Song

机构信息

Hunan Meteorological Research Institute, Changsha, China.

出版信息

Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2013 Feb;24(2):397-406.

Abstract

To analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and occurrence regularity of seasonal drought can provide theoretical basis for constituting the countermeasures of drought resistance and drought mitigation under the background of global climate change. Based on the 1959-2008 daily precipitation and atmospheric temperature data collected from the meteorological stations in 15 provinces (municipalities, and autonomous regions) of southern China, and using the percentages of precipitation anomalies (Pa) in the national standard "Meteorological Drought Classification", which were locally modified, the drought indices in southern China in 1959-2008 were calculated, and the spatial distribution characteristics of drought frequency in southern China in each year, each season, and each month, as well as the inter-annual changes of the drought intensity and the proportions of the stations with seasonal drought were analyzed. In the study period, the annual drought risk in southern China was generally low. There existed obvious seasonal differences in the spatial distribution characteristics of the drought. Autumn drought was most frequent and most intensive, mainly occurred in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, South China and in the other major agricultural areas, winter drought was also frequent and intensive, mainly occurred in the west of Southwest China and the South China and other winter crop planting areas, while spring drought and summer drought were relatively less frequent or intensive. Spring drought mostly occurred in the southwest of Southwest China, the south of South China, and Huaibei area etc. , and summer drought mostly occurred in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, southeastern coastal area of Fujian, and northeast of Southwest China. The area with drought frequently occurred showed an obvious monthly fluctuation and space transformation, which was decreased with time from November to next May, increased with time from May to November, in the smallest range from April to June, and in the widest range from November to December. The annual drought area showed a slight decrease while the drought intensity should a slight increase, but the situation differed with season, i. e. , spring drought area slightly decreased and the drought intensity weakened, summer drought area had an obvious decrease and the drought intensity weakened, autumn drought area increased obviously and the drought intensity increased, while winter drought area decreased and the drought intensity weakened.

摘要

分析季节性干旱的时空特征和发生规律,可为在全球气候变化背景下制定抗旱减灾对策提供理论依据。基于1959—2008年中国南方15个省(直辖市、自治区)气象站逐日降水和气温资料,采用国家标准《气象干旱等级》中降水距平百分率(Pa)并进行本地化修正,计算1959—2008年中国南方干旱指数,分析每年、各季节、各月份中国南方干旱频率的空间分布特征以及干旱强度和季节性干旱站次比例的年际变化。研究时段内,中国南方年干旱风险总体较低。干旱空间分布特征存在明显季节差异。秋旱发生频率最高、强度最大,主要发生在长江中下游、华南等主要农业区;冬旱也较为频繁且强度较大,主要发生在西南西部和华南等冬种作物种植区;而春旱和夏旱发生频率相对较低或强度较弱。春旱多发生在西南西南部、华南南部和淮北等地,夏旱多发生在长江中下游、福建东南沿海和西南东北部。干旱频发区呈现明显的月波动和空间转换,11月至次年5月随时间呈减少趋势,5月至11月随时间呈增加趋势,4—6月范围最小,11月至12月范围最大。年干旱面积呈略减少趋势,干旱强度呈略增加趋势,但不同季节情况不同,即春旱面积略减少、强度减弱,夏旱面积明显减少、强度减弱,秋旱面积明显增加、强度增强,冬旱面积减少、强度减弱。

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