A New Zealand based cohort study of anaesthetic trainees' career outcomes compared with previously expressed intentions.

Predicting workforce requirements is a difficult but necessary part of health resource planning. A 'snapshot' workforce survey undertaken in 2002 examined issues that New Zealand anaesthesia trainees expected would influence their choice of future workplace. We have restudied the same cohort to see if that workforce survey was a good predictor of outcome. Seventy (51%) of 138 surveys were completed in 2009 compared with 100 (80%) of 138 in the 2002 survey. Eighty percent of the 2002 respondents planned consultant positions in New Zealand. We found 64% of respondents were working in New Zealand (P < 0.01). We found that family ties were an important influence on the choice of country of residence for 80% of New Zealand based respondents but only 40% of those living outside New Zealand agreed or strongly agreed with this statement (P < 0.01). Remuneration influenced country of residence for 76% of those living outside New Zealand but was important for only 2% of those resident in New Zealand (P < 0.01). Salaries in New Zealand were predominantly between NZ$150,000 and $200,000 while those overseas received between NZ$300,000 and $400,000. Of those that are resident in New Zealand, 84% had studied in a New Zealand medical school compared with 52% of those currently working overseas (P < 0.01). Our study shows that stated career intentions in a group do not predict the actual group outcomes. We suggest that 'snapshot' studies examining workforce intentions are of little value for workforce planning. However we believe an ongoing program matching career aspirations against career outcomes would be a useful tool in workforce planning.