Fisheries and Environmental Management (FEM) Group, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Merikotka Research Center, Mussalontie 428, FI-48310 Kotka, Finland.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2011 Dec;62(12):2822-35. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2011.08.045. Epub 2011 Oct 14.
Knowledge of oil-induced impacts from the literature and experts were used to develop a Bayesian network to evaluate the biological consequences of an oil accident in the low-saline Gulf of Finland (GOF). Analysis was carried out for selected groups of organisms. Subnetworks were divided into subgroups according to a predicted response to oil exposure. Two scenario analyses are presented: the most probable and the worst-case accident. The impact of the most probable accident in the GOF is rather small. In most of the groups studied oil-induced long-term effects are evaluated to be minor at least from the perspective of the whole GOF. After the worst-case accident negative effects are more likely. The model predicts that the most vulnerable groups are auks and ducks. Amphipods, gulls and to a lesser extend littoral fishes and seals may show delayed recovery after an accident. Also annual plant species may be susceptible to oil-induced disturbances.
利用文献和专家的知识，开发了一个贝叶斯网络来评估低盐水域芬兰湾（GOF）石油事故对生物的影响。选择了特定的生物群体进行分析。根据对石油暴露的预测反应，将子网分成了子组。提出了两种情景分析：最可能发生的事故和最坏情况的事故。GOF 中最可能发生的事故影响相当小。在研究的大多数群体中，从整个 GOF 的角度来看，石油引起的长期影响被评估为较小。在最坏情况下的事故后，负面影响更有可能出现。该模型预测，最脆弱的群体是海雀和鸭类。在事故发生后，可能会出现桡足类、海鸥和在较小程度上的沿海鱼类和海豹等群体的延迟恢复。此外，一年生植物物种可能容易受到石油引起的干扰。
