Department of Public Health and Medical Affairs, Fukuoka Prefectural Government, 7-7 Higashi-koen, Hakata-ku, Fukuoka-shi, Fukuoka 812-8577, Japan.
Sci Total Environ. 2011 Dec 1;410-411:119-25. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.09.055. Epub 2011 Oct 20.
The increasing evidence for rapid global climate change has highlighted the need for investigations examining the relationship between weather variability and infectious diseases. However, the impact of weather fluctuations on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), which primarily affects children, is not well understood.
We acquired data related to cases of HFMD and weather parameters of temperature and humidity in Fukuoka, Japan between 2000 and 2010, and used time-series analyses to assess the possible relationship of weather variability with pediatric HFMD cases, adjusting for seasonal and interannual variations.
Our analysis revealed that the weekly number of HFMD cases increased by 11.2% (95% CI: 3.2-19.8) for every 1°C increase in average temperature and by 4.7% (95% CI: 2.4-7.2) for every 1% increase in relative humidity. Notably, the effects of temperature and humidity on HFMD infection were most significant in children under the age of 10 years.
Our study provides quantitative evidence that the number of HFMD cases increased significantly with increasing average temperature and relative humidity, and suggests that preventive measures for limiting the spread of HFMD, particularly in younger children, should be considered during extended periods of high temperature and humidity.
越来越多的证据表明全球气候变化正在加速，这凸显了研究天气变化与传染病之间关系的必要性。然而，天气波动对手足口病（HFMD）的影响（HFMD 主要影响儿童）还没有被很好地理解。
我们获取了日本福冈 2000 年至 2010 年期间手足口病病例和温度、湿度等气象参数的数据，并使用时间序列分析来评估天气变化与儿科手足口病病例之间的可能关系，同时调整了季节性和年际变化的影响。
我们的分析表明，平均温度每升高 1°C，手足口病每周病例数增加 11.2%（95%置信区间：3.2-19.8），相对湿度每增加 1%，手足口病每周病例数增加 4.7%（95%置信区间：2.4-7.2）。值得注意的是，温度和湿度对 10 岁以下儿童手足口病感染的影响最为显著。
本研究提供了定量证据表明，手足口病病例数量随着平均温度和相对湿度的升高而显著增加，并提示在高温高湿期应考虑采取预防措施限制手足口病的传播，特别是在年幼的儿童中。
