Department of Statistics (MS 4A7), George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA.
Forensic Sci Int. 2012 Mar 10;216(1-3):146-57. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2011.09.013. Epub 2011 Oct 22.
The likelihood ratio paradigm has been studied as a means for quantifying the strength of evidence for a variety of forensic evidence types. Although the concept of a likelihood ratio as a comparison of the plausibility of evidence under two propositions (or hypotheses) is straightforward, a number of issues arise when one considers how to go about estimating a likelihood ratio. In this paper, we illustrate one possible approach to estimating a likelihood ratio in comparative handwriting analysis. The novelty of our proposed approach relies on generating simulated writing samples from a collection of writing samples from a known source to form a database for estimating the distribution associated with the numerator of a likelihood ratio. We illustrate this approach using documents collected from 432 writers under controlled conditions.
似然比范式已被研究用于量化各种法医证据类型的证据强度。尽管似然比作为在两个命题（或假设）下证据可能性的比较的概念是直接的，但当考虑如何进行似然比估计时，会出现一些问题。在本文中，我们展示了一种可能的方法来估计比较笔迹分析中的似然比。我们提出的方法的新颖之处在于从已知来源的一系列笔迹样本中生成模拟的笔迹样本，以形成一个数据库，用于估计与似然比的分子相关的分布。我们使用在受控条件下从 432 名作者收集的文档来说明这种方法。
