Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research, N-0349 Oslo, Norway.
Health Econ. 2012 Dec;21(12):1456-76. doi: 10.1002/hec.1803. Epub 2011 Oct 23.
Epidemic diseases afflict all countries, and all epidemics are costly to society. The present paper examines optimal vaccination trajectories before and after an outbreak of a special class of epidemics where the disease normally eradicates itself. The focus is on epidemics where mortality may be ignored, influenza being the prime example. One important insight is that there may be increasing returns to scale in vaccination.
传染病困扰着所有国家，所有传染病都会给社会带来巨大的经济损失。本文研究了一类特殊传染病爆发前后的最佳疫苗接种轨迹，这类传染病通常会自行消灭。本文的重点是研究那些可以忽略死亡率的传染病，流感就是一个主要的例子。一个重要的发现是，疫苗接种可能存在规模报酬递增。
