Cancer Epidemiology Research Unit, Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
BMJ Open. 2011 Apr 7;1(1):e000104. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2011-000104.
Introduction Current strategies for the management of prostate cancer are inadequate in Australia. We will, in this study, estimate current service needs and project the future needs for prostate cancer patients in Australia. Methods and analysis First, we will project the future prevalence of prostate cancer for 2010-2018 using data for 1972-2008 from the New South Wales (NSW) Central Cancer Registry. These projections, based on modelled incidence and survival estimates, will be estimated using PIAMOD (Prevalence, Incidence, Analysis MODel) software. Then the total prevalence will be decomposed into five stages of care: initial care, continued monitoring, recurrence, last year of life and long-term survivor. Finally, data from the NSW Prostate Cancer Care and Outcomes Study, including data on patterns of treatment and associated quality of life, will be used to estimate the type and amount of services that will be needed by prostate cancer patients in each stage of care. In addition, Central Cancer Registry episode data will be used to estimate transition rates from localised or locally advanced prostate cancer to metastatic disease. Medicare and Pharmaceutical Benefits data, linked with Prostate Cancer Care and Outcomes Study data, will be used to complement the Cancer Registry episode data. The methods developed will be applied Australia-wide to obtain national estimates of the future prevalence of prostate cancer for different stages of clinical care. Ethics and dissemination This study was approved by the NSW Population and Health Services Research Ethics Committee. Results of the study will be disseminated widely to different interest groups and organisations through a report, conference presentations and peer-reviewed articles.
介绍
目前澳大利亚在前列腺癌管理方面的策略并不完善。在本研究中，我们将评估当前的服务需求，并预测澳大利亚前列腺癌患者的未来需求。
方法和分析
首先，我们将使用新南威尔士州（NSW）中央癌症登记处 1972-2008 年的数据，通过 PIAMOD（流行率、发病率、分析模型）软件对 2010-2018 年前列腺癌的未来流行率进行预测。这些预测是基于发病率和生存率的模型估计得出的。然后，将总流行率分解为五个护理阶段：初始护理、持续监测、复发、生命的最后一年和长期幸存者。最后，我们将使用来自新南威尔士州前列腺癌护理和结局研究的数据，包括治疗模式和相关生活质量的数据，来估计每个护理阶段的前列腺癌患者所需的服务类型和数量。此外，中央癌症登记处的病例数据将用于估计从局限性或局部进展性前列腺癌向转移性疾病的转移率。Medicare 和药品福利数据，与前列腺癌护理和结局研究的数据相关联，将用于补充癌症登记处的病例数据。所开发的方法将在澳大利亚全国范围内应用，以获得不同临床护理阶段前列腺癌未来流行率的全国估计值。
伦理和传播
这项研究已获得新南威尔士州人口与健康服务研究伦理委员会的批准。研究结果将通过报告、会议演讲和同行评议文章广泛传播给不同的利益相关群体和组织。
