Transient dynamics of invasive competition: barred owls, spotted owls, habitat, and the demons of competition present.

The recent range expansion of Barred Owls (Strix varia) into the Pacific Northwest, where the species now co-occurs with the endemic Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), resulted in a unique opportunity to investigate potential competition between two congeneric, previously allopatric species. The primary criticism of early competition research was the use of current species' distribution patterns to infer past processes; however, the recent expansion of the Barred Owl and the ability to model the processes that result in site occupancy (i.e., colonization and extinction) allowed us to address the competitive process directly rather than inferring past processes through current patterns. The purpose of our study was to determine whether Barred Owls had any negative effects on occupancy dynamics of nesting territories by Northern Spotted Owls and how these effects were influenced by habitat characteristics of Spotted Owl territories. We used single-species, multi-season occupancy models and covariates quantifying Barred Owl detections and habitat characteristics to model extinction and colonization rates of Spotted Owl pairs in southern Oregon, USA. We observed a strong, negative association between Barred Owl detections and colonization rates and a strong positive effect of Barred Owl detections on extinction rates of Spotted Owls. We observed increased extinction rates in response to decreased amounts of old forest at the territory core and higher colonization rates when old-forest habitat was less fragmented. Annual site occupancy for pairs reflected the strong effects of Barred Owls on occupancy dynamics with much lower occupancy rates predicted for territories where Barred Owls were detected. The strong Barred Owl and habitat effects on occupancy dynamics of Spotted Owls provided evidence of interference competition between the species. These effects increase the importance of conserving large amounts of contiguous, old-forest habitat to maintain Northern Spotted Owls in the landscape.