Popul Stud (Camb). 1977 Nov;31(3):467-86. doi: 10.1080/00324728.1977.10412761.
Summary Earlier work by Page and Coale has estimated demographic indices of fertility and mortality for parts of Africa using the Sullivan modification of Brass's technique. The present paper presents modified and more accurate estimates of fertility and child mortality, not only for the sub-national units covered by Page and Coale but also for areas not covered by them. The present analysis which employs Trussell's refinement of Brass and Sullivan's techniques also includes improvements overlooked in earlier estimates. The salient finding that emerges is that while the Brass mortality technique is very powerful, his equally ingenious fertility technique is very weak and should not be relied on for estimating fertility parameters.
摘要 佩奇和考尔（Page and Coale）的早期工作使用布拉斯（Brass）技术的沙利文修正版（Sullivan modification）估计了非洲部分地区的生育和死亡人口指标。本文提出了对生育率和儿童死亡率的修正和更准确的估计，不仅涵盖了佩奇和考尔涵盖的国家以下单位，还涵盖了他们没有涵盖的地区。本分析采用特鲁塞尔（Trussell）对布拉斯和沙利文技术的改进，也包括了早期估计中忽略的改进。一个显著的发现是，虽然布拉斯死亡率技术非常强大，但他同样巧妙的生育率技术却非常薄弱，不应该依赖它来估计生育率参数。
