An Ya-chen, Chen Yun-xia, Wang Yu-xun, Zhao Xiao-jing, Wang Yan, Zhang Jiang, Li Chun-ling, Peng Yan-bo, Gao Su-ling, Chang Li-sha, Zhang Li, Xue Xin-hong, Chen Rui-ying, Wang Da-li
Department of Neurology, Affiliated Hospital, the Hebei United University, Tangshan 063000, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2011 Aug;32(8):816-20.
To investigate the risk factors and establish the Cox's regression model on the recurrence of ischemic stroke.
We retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients with ischemic stroke admitted to the Neurology Department of the Hebei United University Affiliated Hospital between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2009. Cases had been followed since the onset of ischemic stroke. The follow-up program was finished in June 30, 2010. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to describe the recurrence rate. Monovariant and multivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression model were used to analyze the risk factors associated to the episodes of recurrence. And then, a recurrence model was set up.
During the period of follow-up program, 79 cases were relapsed, with the recurrence rates as 12.75% in one year and 18.87% in two years. Monovariant and multivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression model showed that the independent risk factors that were associated with the recurrence appeared to be age (X₁) (RR = 1.025, 95%CI: 1.003 - 1.048), history of hypertension (X₂) (RR = 1.976, 95%CI: 1.014 - 3.851), history of family strokes (X₃) (RR = 2.647, 95%CI: 1.175 - 5.961), total cholesterol amount (X₄) (RR = 1.485, 95%CI: 1.214 - 1.817), ESRS total scores (X₅) (RR = 1.327, 95%CI: 1.057 - 1.666) and progression of the disease (X₆) (RR = 1.889, 95%CI: 1.123 - 3.178). Personal prognosis index (PI) of the recurrence model was as follows: PI = 0.025X₁ + 0.681X₂ + 0.973X₃ + 0.395X₄ + 0.283X₅ + 0.636X₆. The smaller the personal prognosis index was, the lower the recurrence risk appeared, while the bigger the personal prognosis index was, the higher the recurrence risk appeared.
Age, history of hypertension, total cholesterol amount, total scores of ESRS, together with the disease progression were the independent risk factors associated with the recurrence episodes of ischemic stroke. Both recurrence model and the personal prognosis index equation were successful constructed.
探讨缺血性脑卒中复发的危险因素并建立Cox回归模型。
回顾性分析2008年1月1日至2009年12月31日在河北联合大学附属医院神经内科住院的缺血性脑卒中连续病例。自缺血性脑卒中发病起进行随访。随访计划于2010年6月30日结束。采用Kaplan-Meier法描述复发率。单因素和多因素Cox比例风险回归模型用于分析与复发事件相关的危险因素。然后，建立复发模型。
在随访期间，79例复发，1年复发率为12.75%，2年复发率为18.87%。单因素和多因素Cox比例风险回归模型显示，与复发相关的独立危险因素似乎为年龄（X₁）（RR = 1.025，95%CI：1.003 - 1.048）、高血压病史（X₂）（RR = 1.976，95%CI：1.014 - 3.851）、家族卒中病史（X₃）（RR = 2.647，95%CI：1.175 - 5.961）、总胆固醇量（X₄）（RR = 1.485，95%CI：1.214 - 1.817）、ESRS总分（X₅）（RR = 1.327，95%CI：1.057 - 1.666）和疾病进展（X₆）（RR = 1.889，95%CI：1.123 - 3.178）。复发模型的个人预后指数（PI）如下：PI = 0.025X₁ + 0.681X₂ + 0.973X₃ + 0.395X₄ + 0.283X₅ + 0.636X₆。个人预后指数越小，复发风险越低；个人预后指数越大，复发风险越高。
年龄、高血压病史、总胆固醇量、ESRS总分以及疾病进展是与缺血性脑卒中复发事件相关的独立危险因素。成功构建了复发模型和个人预后指数方程。
