Department of Biomedical Kinesiology, Faculty of Kinesiology and Rehabilitation Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
J Sports Sci. 2011 Dec;29(15):1683-91. doi: 10.1080/02640414.2011.625969.
The purpose of this study was to validate and cross-validate the Beunen-Malina-Freitas method for non-invasive prediction of adult height in girls. A sample of 420 girls aged 10-15 years from the Madeira Growth Study were measured at yearly intervals and then 8 years later. Anthropometric dimensions (lengths, breadths, circumferences, and skinfolds) were measured; skeletal age was assessed using the Tanner-Whitehouse 3 method and menarcheal status (present or absent) was recorded. Adult height was measured and predicted using stepwise, forward, and maximum R (2) regression techniques. Multiple correlations, mean differences, standard errors of prediction, and error boundaries were calculated. A sample of the Leuven Longitudinal Twin Study was used to cross-validate the regressions. Age-specific coefficients of determination (R (2)) between predicted and measured adult height varied between 0.57 and 0.96, while standard errors of prediction varied between 1.1 and 3.9 cm. The cross-validation confirmed the validity of the Beunen-Malina-Freitas method in girls aged 12-15 years, but at lower ages the cross-validation was less consistent. We conclude that the Beunen-Malina-Freitas method is valid for the prediction of adult height in girls aged 12-15 years. It is applicable to European populations or populations of European ancestry.
本研究旨在验证和交叉验证 Beunen-Malina-Freitas 方法，以无创预测女孩的成年身高。样本为来自马德拉生长研究的 420 名年龄在 10-15 岁的女孩，每年测量一次，然后 8 年后再次测量。测量了人体测量学尺寸（长度、宽度、周长和皮褶厚度）；使用 Tanner-Whitehouse 3 法评估骨骼年龄，并记录初潮状态（存在或不存在）。使用逐步、正向和最大 R（2）回归技术测量和预测成年身高。计算了多元相关系数、平均差异、预测标准误差和误差边界。使用鲁汶纵向双胞胎研究的样本对回归进行交叉验证。预测和测量的成年身高之间的年龄特异性决定系数（R（2））在 0.57 到 0.96 之间变化，而预测标准误差在 1.1 到 3.9 厘米之间变化。交叉验证证实了 Beunen-Malina-Freitas 方法在 12-15 岁女孩中预测成年身高的有效性，但在较低年龄时，交叉验证的一致性较低。我们得出结论，Beunen-Malina-Freitas 方法适用于预测 12-15 岁女孩的成年身高。它适用于欧洲人群或欧洲血统人群。
