D'Alessandro Simone
University of Pisa, Italy.
Oxf Econ Pap. 2011;63(4):625-47. doi: 10.1093/oep/gpr014.
This paper shows that under weather variability the transformation from a rural to an incomplete market economy can increase the vulnerability of peasants to famine. This can occur even if improvements in technology have raised agricultural productivity and made production less responsive to weather variability. Indeed, negative environmental shocks can produce a drop in wages that outweighs the increase in wages due to an equivalent positive environmental shock. Consequently, the amount of grain stored increases more slowly in good seasons than it decreases in bad ones. This paper gives new insights on the catastrophic effects produced by widespread droughts in India during the second half of the 19th century. Notwithstanding the introduction of new modes of production and the modernization of infrastructures, the interaction between environmental variability and new institutional arrangements might have contributed to increase the vulnerability of peasants to famine.
本文表明，在天气多变的情况下，从农村经济向不完全市场经济的转变会增加农民遭受饥荒的脆弱性。即使技术进步提高了农业生产率，使生产对天气变化的反应减弱，这种情况仍可能发生。事实上，负面的环境冲击可能导致工资下降，其幅度超过同等正面环境冲击所带来的工资增长。因此，粮食储存量在丰年增加的速度比在歉年减少的速度要慢。本文对19世纪下半叶印度普遍干旱所产生的灾难性影响提供了新的见解。尽管引入了新的生产方式和基础设施现代化，但环境变化与新制度安排之间的相互作用可能加剧了农民遭受饥荒的脆弱性。
