Breuning Marijke, Ishiyama John
Soc Sci Q. 2011;92(4):1002-020. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2011.00800.x.
This study investigates the security implications of growing orphan populations, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Little has been written about the security implications of this especially vulnerable group of children. Are growing orphan populations associated with increases in political instability as has been suggested?
Using data from several sources, we employ regression analysis to test whether Sub-Saharan African countries with larger proportions of orphans and those with increasing orphan populations experience higher rates of political instability.
We find that the increase in the orphan population is related to an increasing incidence of civil conflict, but do not find a similar relationship for the proportion of orphans. In addition, we find that the causes of orphanhood matter.
We conclude that increases in orphan populations (rather than simple proportions) are destabilizing. We suggest possible avenues for mediating the security risks posed by growing orphan populations.
本研究调查孤儿人口增长所带来的安全影响，特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲地区。关于这一特别脆弱儿童群体的安全影响，相关著述甚少。不断增长的孤儿人口是否如有人所提出的那样与政治不稳定加剧有关？
利用来自多个来源的数据，我们采用回归分析来检验孤儿比例较高的撒哈拉以南非洲国家以及孤儿人口不断增加的国家是否经历更高的政治不稳定率。
我们发现孤儿人口的增加与内战发生率上升有关，但未发现孤儿比例与内战发生率之间存在类似关系。此外，我们发现导致儿童成为孤儿的原因很重要。
我们得出结论，孤儿人口的增加（而非单纯的比例）正在破坏稳定。我们提出了一些可能的途径来调解不断增长的孤儿人口所带来的安全风险。
