Absalón-Medina Victor Antonio, Nicholson Charles F, Blake Robert W, Fox Danny Gene, Juárez-Lagunes Francisco I, Canudas-Lara Eduardo G, Rueda-Maldonado Bertha L
Department of Animal Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
Trop Anim Health Prod. 2012 Aug;44(6):1143-50. doi: 10.1007/s11250-011-0050-8. Epub 2011 Dec 23.
Market information was combined with predicted input-output relationships in an economic analysis of alternative nutritional management for dual-purpose member herds of the Genesis farmer organization of central coastal Veracruz, Mexico. Cow productivity outcomes for typical management and alternative feeding scenarios were obtained from structured sets of simulations in a companion study of productivity limitations and potentials using the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System model (Version 6.0). Partial budgeting methods and sensitivity analysis were used to identify economically viable alternatives based on expected change in milk income over feed cost (change in revenues from milk sales less change in feed costs). Herd owners in coastal Veracruz have large economic incentives, from $584 to $1,131 in predicted net margin, to increase milk sales by up to 74% across a three-lactation cow lifetime by improving diets based on good quality grass and legume forages. This increment is equal to, or exceeds, in value the total yield from at least one additional lactation per cow lifetime. Furthermore, marginal rates of return (change in milk income over feed costs divided by change in variable costs when alternative practices are used) of 3.3 ± 0.8 indicate clear economic incentives to remove fundamental productivity vulnerabilities due to chronic energy deficits and impeded growth of immature cows under typical management. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the economic outcomes are robust for a variety of market conditions.
在对墨西哥韦拉克鲁斯州中部沿海地区创世纪农民组织的两用奶牛群进行替代营养管理的经济分析中，市场信息与预测的投入产出关系相结合。在一项使用康奈尔净碳水化合物和蛋白质系统模型（6.0版）对生产力限制和潜力进行的配套研究中，通过结构化的模拟集得出了典型管理和替代饲养方案下奶牛的生产性能结果。采用部分预算法和敏感性分析，根据牛奶收入相对于饲料成本的预期变化（牛奶销售收入的变化减去饲料成本的变化）来确定经济上可行的替代方案。韦拉克鲁斯沿海地区的奶牛养殖户有很大的经济激励，预计净利润从584美元到1131美元不等，通过基于优质禾本科和豆科牧草改善日粮，在奶牛的三个泌乳期内将牛奶销售量提高多达74%。这一增量在价值上等于或超过每头奶牛一生中至少增加一次泌乳的总产量。此外，3.3±0.8的边际回报率（使用替代做法时牛奶收入变化除以饲料成本变化再除以可变成本变化）表明，存在明显的经济激励因素，可消除典型管理下由于长期能量不足和未成熟奶牛生长受阻而导致的基本生产性能弱点。敏感性分析表明，经济结果在各种市场条件下都是稳健的。
