Dipartimento di Scienze Biomediche e Biotecnologie, Universita di Brescia, Viale Europa 11, 25125 Brescia, Italy.
Math Biosci Eng. 2012 Jan 1;9(1):75-96. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2012.9.75.
Parameter estimation for the functional response of predator-prey systems is a critical methodological problem in population ecology. In this paper we consider a stochastic predator-prey system with non-linear Ivlev functional response and propose a method for model parameter estimation based on time series of field data. We tackle the problem of parameter estimation using a Bayesian approach relying on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The efficiency of the method is tested on a set of simulated data. Then, the method is applied to a predator-prey system of importance for Integrated Pest Management and biological control, the pest mite Tetranychus urticae and the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis. The model is estimated on a dataset obtained from a field survey. Finally, the estimated model is used to forecast predator-prey dynamics in similar fields, with slightly different initial conditions.
参数估计在捕食者-被捕食者系统的功能反应中是种群生态学中的一个关键方法问题。在本文中，我们考虑了一个具有非线性 Ivlev 功能反应的随机捕食者-被捕食者系统，并提出了一种基于野外数据时间序列的模型参数估计方法。我们使用基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法的贝叶斯方法来解决参数估计问题。该方法的效率在一组模拟数据上进行了测试。然后，该方法被应用于一个对综合虫害管理和生物防治很重要的捕食者-被捕食者系统，即害螨 Tetranychus urticae 和捕食性螨 Phytoseiulus persimilis。该模型是根据从实地调查中获得的数据集进行估计的。最后，使用估计的模型来预测在初始条件略有不同的类似田地里的捕食者-被捕食者动态。
