George Washington Institute of Public Policy, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA.
J Aging Soc Policy. 2012;24(1):1-28. doi: 10.1080/08959420.2011.605682.
The authors examine whether the surge in housing refinance and equity withdrawal generated by the housing boom disproportionately affected older households in terms of decisions on whether to refinance, whether to withdraw equity, and how much to withdraw, and how in turn these decisions affected their household wealth. Using the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances, the authors found the highest rates of refinancing and cashing out equity among older (although not necessarily the oldest) households. The authors also found that appreciation in house value, being a baby boomer, and having higher household income were the factors that most increased the probability of refinancing and withdrawing equity. Amounts cashed out were higher among older than among younger households. Ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates showed that amounts withdrawn were increased by price appreciation, financial assets, and income, along with being a "pre-boomer" or "early boomer." Older cohorts displayed larger wealth effects than younger ones, but their withdrawn equity was a smaller percentage of total net worth. A relatively small percentage of respondents' dollars was used for consumption, and most dollars were used for home improvement, other investment, or debt repayment. However, massive equity withdrawal and the subsequent collapse of housing prices have caused housing leverage to soar, putting some homeowners "underwater" and jeopardizing others' retirement preparedness. The ensuing housing finance crisis raises numerous policy issues, from reform of mortgage underwriting, securitization, servicing, and foreclosure procedures, to potential limitations on borrowing against unrealized housing equity gains, to enhanced government transfers for distressed older homeowners, to local and state revenue policy changes.
作者研究了住房繁荣时期住房再融资和股权提取的激增是否在再融资决策、提取股权的决策以及提取金额方面对老年家庭产生了不成比例的影响，以及这些决策反过来如何影响他们的家庭财富。作者使用美联储的消费者金融调查发现，再融资和提取股权的比例最高的是较老的（尽管不一定是最老的）家庭。作者还发现，房屋价值的增值、是婴儿潮一代以及更高的家庭收入是增加再融资和提取股权可能性的最大因素。提取的金额在老年家庭中高于年轻家庭。普通最小二乘法（OLS）估计表明，提取金额随着房价上涨、金融资产和收入的增加以及作为“前婴儿潮一代”或“早期婴儿潮一代”而增加。较老的年龄组显示出比年轻的年龄组更大的财富效应，但他们提取的股权占总净值的比例较小。相对较少的受访者的资金用于消费，而大多数资金用于房屋装修、其他投资或债务偿还。然而，大量的股权提取以及随后房价的暴跌导致住房杠杆率飙升，使一些房主“资不抵债”，并危及其他人的退休准备。随后的住房金融危机引发了许多政策问题，从抵押贷款承销、证券化、服务和止赎程序的改革，到对未实现住房股权收益借款的潜在限制，再到为陷入困境的老年房主提供更多的政府转移支付，以及地方和州税收政策的变化。
