Evidence-based prediction of statin use with lipid-panel data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

OBJECTIVES

This study compared actual use of individual statin drugs to expected use based on their efficacy and safety profiles.

METHODS

Five panels covering the years 1999 to 2008 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey provided interview, demographic, and laboratory data for 8769 (365,503,838 weighted) people aged 20 years or older who were not taking a statin medication. An individual's risk for coronary heart disease and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol goal were determined, following the Adult Treatment Panel III Cholesterol Guidelines. The percentage LDL cholesterol lowering required to reach his/her LDL cholesterol level goal was calculated. Depending on the amount of LDL cholesterol lowering needed and on if the individual had a liver condition (i.e., enhanced risk of rhabdomyolysis) statins were hypothetically prescribed. Predicted use was compared to actual use by U.S. Medicaid beneficiaries in the third quarter of 2009, obtained from the Medicaid State Drug Utilization Data maintained by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

RESULTS

Results showed that 72.34% of the population was in the lowest coronary heart disease risk group and that 86.30% required no statin therapy. Among the people who did require LDL cholesterol lowering, a significant majority (37.3 million or 10.22% of the population) needed 30% lowering or less. Only 314,784 (0.09%) required LDL cholesterol lowering of greater than 60%. Utilization shares based on safety and efficacy were estimated at 19.26% (rosuvastatin), 18.67% (atorvastatin), 16.48% (simvastatin), 16.30% (lovastatin), 14.93% (pravastatin), and 14.36% (fluvastatin).

CONCLUSIONS

Actual statin use differed substantially from predicted use. It may be appropriate to develop and maintain policies that encourage use of less costly products that have essentially equivalent safety profiles and efficacy.