Detection of restenosis after successful coronary angioplasty: improved clinical decision making with use of a logistic model combining procedural and follow-up variables.

A prospective study of 111 patients who underwent repeat coronary angiography and exercise thallium-201 scintigraphy 6 +/- 2 months after complete revascularization by percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty was performed to assess whether clinical, procedure-related and postangioplasty exercise variables yield independent information for the prediction of angiographic restenosis after angioplasty. Complete revascularization was defined as successful angioplasty of one or more vessels that resulted in no residual coronary lesion with greater than 50% diameter stenosis. Restenosis was defined as a residual stenosis at the time of repeat angiography of greater than 50% of luminal diameter. Restenosis occurred in 40% of the patients. The 111 patients were randomly subdivided into a learning group (n = 84) and a testing group (n = 27). A logistic discriminant analysis was performed in the learning group and the logistic model was used to estimate a logistic probability of restenosis. This probability of restenosis was validated in the testing group. In the learning group of 84 patients univariate analysis of 39 factors revealed 8 factors related to restenosis: recurrence of angina (p less than 0.0001), postangioplasty abnormal finding on exercise thallium-201 scintigram (p less than 0.0001), exercise thallium-201 scintigram score (p less than 0.0001), difference between exercise and rest ST segment depression (p less than 0.001), postangioplasty exercise ST segment depression (p less than 0.001), absolute postangioplasty stenosis diameter (p less than 0.003), postangioplasty exercise work load (p less than 0.03) and postangioplasty exercise heart rate (p less than 0.05).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)