Schall R
Institute for Biostatistics, South African Medical Research Council, Parowvallei, CP.
S Afr Med J. 1990 Nov 3;78(9):507-10.
Using a macro-simulation model, the maximum size of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic among the heterosexual black population of South Africa is assessed. As a result of the simulations, it appears very unlikely that the demographic impact of AIDS is such that the size of the black population will be substantially reduced during the next three decades. A realistic 'worst-case' scenario is that population growth will come to a halt on a population level substantially higher than the present one. It is also unlikely that peak infection levels among the sexually active population will exceed 30-40%. However, especially in urban populations, it cannot be ruled out at present that infection levels of 30% will be reached within the next 10-15 years.
利用宏观模拟模型，对南非异性恋黑人人群中获得性免疫缺陷综合征（艾滋病）流行的最大规模进行了评估。模拟结果显示，艾滋病对人口结构的影响极不可能在未来三十年使黑人人口规模大幅减少。现实的“最坏情况”是，人口增长将在远高于当前水平的人口规模上停止。性活跃人群中的感染峰值水平也不太可能超过30%-40%。然而，特别是在城市人口中，目前不能排除在未来10至15年内达到30%的感染水平。
