Long-term prognosis of myocardial ischemia detected by Holter monitoring in peripheral vascular disease.

To assess the long-term prognostic significance of myocardial ischemia, as measured by ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring, in patients with occlusive peripheral arterial disease, 176 eligible patients scheduled for elective peripheral arterial surgery at Brigham and Women's Hospital were prospectively studied. All patients were monitored preoperatively without alterations to baseline medications. Prospective follow-up was obtained during routine medical care as provided by blinded, independent physicians and by subsequent telephone contact with the patients. Thirty-two patients (18%) had a total of 75 episodes of myocardial ischemia, 73 (97%) of which were asymptomatic. During a mean follow-up period of 615 days, there were 9 cardiac deaths, 1 occurring in-hospital after peripheral vascular surgery, and 13 nonfatal myocardial infarctions, 4 occurring in-hospital after peripheral vascular surgery. Cardiac events occurred in 12 of 32 patients with ischemia (38%), including 6 cardiac deaths, and in 10 of 144 patients without ischemia (7%), including 3 cardiac deaths (risk ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 2.6 to 11.4). The sensitivity of ischemia was 55%, the specificity was 87%, the positive predictive value was 38%, and the negative predictive value was 93%. In a multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model controlling for age, gender, coronary risk factors, history of angina, myocardial infarction, coronary artery disease and antianginal medications, the presence of ischemia was the only independent predictor of outcome. In patients with peripheral arterial disease, who often are unable to perform adequate exercise testing, ambulatory monitoring for myocardial ischemia is a significant independent predictor of 1- to 2-year prognosis.