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基于选择实验的奥地利河流修复个体偏好的时间稳定性。

Temporal stability of individual preferences for river restoration in Austria using a choice experiment.

机构信息

Institute for Advanced Studies Carinthia, Klagenfurt, Austria.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2012 Jul 30;103:65-73. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.02.029. Epub 2012 Mar 28.

Abstract

Temporal stability of values (environmental preferences) is usually considered to be an indicator of the reliability of a valuation instrument because the values can be "reproduced" by follow-up experiments. The objective of this paper is to test temporal stability of individual preferences for river restoration by employing two identical choice experiments with a time difference of one year. We compared the results of two surveys carried out on the stretch of the Danube River between the Austrian capital of Vienna and the border to the Slovak Republic in 2007 and 2008. The choice experiment method considered economic costs and benefits of ecological improvements along the river, in order to value environmental resources. Using a multinomial logit and a mixed logit model for the two samples and a pooled sample, we found that preferences and willingness-to-pay estimates for program attributes are not sensitive to time. The results suggest that, in the absence of an extreme event, individual preferences are robust over a short time period.

摘要

价值(环境偏好)的时间稳定性通常被认为是评估工具可靠性的指标,因为可以通过后续实验“再现”这些价值。本文的目的是通过进行两次相同的选择实验(时间间隔为一年)来测试个体对河流修复的偏好的时间稳定性。我们比较了 2007 年和 2008 年在奥地利首都维也纳和与斯洛伐克共和国接壤的多瑙河河段进行的两次调查的结果。选择实验方法考虑了河流沿线生态改善的经济成本和收益,以评估环境资源的价值。我们使用多项逻辑模型和混合逻辑模型对两个样本以及一个综合样本进行了分析,发现对方案属性的偏好和支付意愿估计值不受时间的影响。结果表明,在没有极端事件的情况下,个体偏好在短时间内是稳健的。

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