[北京市朝阳区户籍居民空气污染与循环系统疾病死亡关系的时间序列分析]

[Time-series analysis on relationship between air pollution and mortality from circulatory system diseases among registered residents in Chaoyang district of Beijing].

作者信息

Zhang Jin-Yan, Zhang Zheng, Meng Hai-Ying, Zhang Gui-Bin, Zhao Wei, Pan Xiao-Chuan

机构信息

Chaoyang District Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2012 Feb;46(2):139-42.

PMID:22490196

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate relationship between daily concentration of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2) and daily mortality due to circulatory system diseases in Chaoyang district, Beijing.

METHODS

The time-series data of daily mortality from circulatory system diseases of registered residents in Chaoyang were obtained from Chaoyang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The daily concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), and particulate matter (PM(10)) were collected from Beijing Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center. And the routine monitoring meteorological data were collected from Beijing Meteorological Bureau, including daily mean temperature and daily mean relative humidity. The time-series analysis was then conducted to determine the relationship of mortality from circulatory system diseases with daily concentrations of SO(2), NO(2) and PM(10) by using Poisson regression with generalized additive model (GAM).

RESULTS

During January 2004 to September 2008, the cumulative death number from circulatory system diseases of registered residents in Chaoyang district of Beijing was 19 241, the daily average concentration of SO(2), NO(2), PM(10) was 48.7, 63.9, 146.1 µg/m(3), respectively. The single pollutant model showed an increase of daily concentration of PM(10), SO(2) and NO(2) by 10 µg/m(3) will augment the mortality from circulatory system diseases by 0.20% (95%CI: 0.01% - 0.39%), 0.36% (95%CI: -0.13% - 0.85%) and 0.30% (95%CI: -0.34% - 0.94%), respectively. In the multiple air pollutants models, combinatorial effects of PM(10) and SO(2) still positively correlated with increased mortality from circulatory system diseases (P < 0.05), whereas changes of the concentration of NO(2) had no significant effect on mortality from circulatory system diseases (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Our findings in this study elucidated that changes of the concentration of PM(10) and SO(2) had a positive correlation with daily mortality from circulatory system diseases among the local residents in Chaoyang District, whereas the daily concentration of NO(2) was irrelevant with that.

摘要

目的

本研究旨在调查北京市朝阳区PM(10)、SO₂、NO₂的日浓度与循环系统疾病日死亡率之间的关系。

方法

朝阳区登记居民循环系统疾病日死亡率的时间序列数据来自朝阳区疾病预防控制中心。二氧化硫（SO₂）、二氧化氮（NO₂）和颗粒物（PM(10)）的日浓度数据收集自北京市环境监测中心。常规监测气象数据收集自北京市气象局，包括日平均气温和日平均相对湿度。然后采用广义相加模型（GAM）的泊松回归进行时间序列分析，以确定循环系统疾病死亡率与SO₂、NO₂和PM(10)日浓度之间的关系。

结果

2004年1月至2008年9月期间，北京市朝阳区登记居民循环系统疾病累计死亡人数为19241人，SO₂、NO₂、PM(10)的日平均浓度分别为48.7、63.9、146.1μg/m³。单污染物模型显示，PM(10)、SO₂和NO₂的日浓度每增加10μg/m³，循环系统疾病死亡率将分别增加0.20%（95%CI：0.01% - 0.39%）、0.36%（95%CI：-0.13% - 0.85%）和0.30%（95%CI：-0.34% - 0.94%）。在多空气污染物模型中，PM(10)和SO₂的联合效应仍与循环系统疾病死亡率增加呈正相关（P < 0.05），而NO₂浓度变化对循环系统疾病死亡率无显著影响（P > 0.05）。