Desrochers Stéphan, Walsh Sébastien, Sacy Michel
Ecole de Psychologie, Université Laval, Québec, Canada.
Can J Exp Psychol. 2012 Sep;66(3):153-63. doi: 10.1037/a0027019. Epub 2012 Apr 16.
Several recent models of probabilistic causal reasoning in adults propose the existence of multiple interactions between ascending and descending factors. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential interactions between knowledge about generative and preventive mechanisms, the delta p of the data, and the relative importance given to the type of data provided. Two experiments involving 54 participants each are conducted, in which participants are invited to quantify the nature of a potential link (causal or associative) between adding a chemical substance to the asphalt of the roads and the formation of a slippery road in the winter, after being given information suggestive of (1) a generative mechanism, (2) a preventive mechanism, or (3) nothing special. Results show an influence of the suggested mechanisms on the reading of data that were provided, especially those with a delta p that is compatible with the a priori mechanism. These results are interpreted and discussed in line with the importance of considering multiple factors in probabilistic causal reasoning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).
最近有几种针对成年人概率因果推理的模型提出，在上升和下降因素之间存在多种相互作用。本研究的目的是评估有关生成性和预防性机制的知识、数据的Δp以及赋予所提供数据类型的相对重要性之间的潜在相互作用。我们进行了两项实验，每项实验有54名参与者，在向参与者提供暗示（1）生成性机制、（2）预防性机制或（3）无特殊情况的信息后，邀请他们量化在道路沥青中添加化学物质与冬季道路湿滑形成之间潜在联系（因果或关联）的性质。结果显示，所暗示的机制对所提供数据的解读有影响，尤其是那些Δp与先验机制相符的数据。根据在概率因果推理中考虑多种因素的重要性，对这些结果进行了解释和讨论。（《心理学文摘数据库记录》（c）2012美国心理学会，保留所有权利）
