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考虑心理变态和性偏差因素是否会增加静态-99R量表的预测效度?

Does consideration of psychopathy and sexual deviance add to the predictive validity of the static-99R?

作者信息

Looman Jan, Morphett Nicola A C, Abracen Jeff

机构信息

Regional Treatment Centre, Kingston, Ontario, Canada.

出版信息

Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol. 2013 Aug;57(8):939-65. doi: 10.1177/0306624X12444839. Epub 2012 May 28.

Abstract

The Static-99 is the most commonly used actuarial risk assessment tool for the prediction of sexual recidivism. In addition, the use of psychopathy and sexual deviance has been common in assessing sexual offenders, based on research suggesting that these factors have predictive validity. It has also become common practice to modify risk assessments based on the Static-99/99R because of the presence of psychopathy and indicators of deviant sexual interests, although to date there has been no research validating this procedure. The current research was conducted to fill this gap in the literature. Using a sample of 272 sexual offenders, the extent to which psychopathy, sexual deviance, and their interaction added to the predictive validity of the Static-99R was examined. Analyses were conducted using the whole sample as well as subgroups of rapists and child molesters. It was found that although the Static-99R predicted sexual recidivism, adding psychopathy and sexual deviance in a Cox regression analysis did not improve the prediction. This held true for child molesters when examined on their own. For rapists, although psychopathy and sexual deviance did not contribute to the prediction of sexual recidivism, for serious (i.e., violent including sexual) recidivism, the inclusion of psychopathy added to the prediction. Results are discussed in terms of implications for practice.

摘要

Static-99是预测性再犯最常用的精算风险评估工具。此外,基于研究表明这些因素具有预测效度,在评估性犯罪者时使用精神病态和性偏差的情况也很常见。由于存在精神病态和异常性兴趣指标,基于Static-99/99R修改风险评估也已成为惯例,尽管迄今为止尚无研究验证这一程序。当前的研究旨在填补文献中的这一空白。使用272名性犯罪者的样本,研究了精神病态、性偏差及其相互作用在多大程度上增加了Static-99R的预测效度。分析使用了整个样本以及强奸犯和儿童性侵犯者的亚组。研究发现,虽然Static-99R可以预测性再犯,但在Cox回归分析中加入精神病态和性偏差并没有改善预测效果。单独考察儿童性侵犯者时也是如此。对于强奸犯,虽然精神病态和性偏差对性再犯的预测没有帮助,但对于严重(即包括性犯罪在内的暴力犯罪)再犯,加入精神病态因素则增加了预测能力。研究结果从对实践的影响方面进行了讨论。

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