Looman Jan
Regional Treatment Centre, Correctional Service of Canada, Kingston, Ontario, Canada.
Sex Abuse. 2006 Apr;18(2):193-206. doi: 10.1177/107906320601800206.
The current research examines the predictive validity of the Static-99 and the SORAG in predicting sexual and violent recidivism among a sample of 258 treated high-risk sexual offenders. While the SORAG was found to have moderate predictive accuracy for both sexual and violent recidivism over a 5-year follow-up period, the Static-99 was found to only predict sexual recidivism. As well, the actual recidivism rates in the current sample were compared to the published risk percentages for each of the instruments. For both the Static-99 and the SORAG the current sample re-offended at a lower rate than expected. Possible explanations for this finding are discussed.
当前的研究考察了静态-99量表和SORAG量表在预测258名接受治疗的高危性犯罪者样本的性犯罪和暴力再犯方面的预测效度。虽然发现SORAG量表在5年的随访期内对性犯罪和暴力再犯都有中等程度的预测准确性,但发现静态-99量表仅能预测性犯罪再犯。此外,还将当前样本中的实际再犯率与每个工具公布的风险百分比进行了比较。对于静态-99量表和SORAG量表,当前样本的再次犯罪率均低于预期。文中讨论了这一发现的可能解释。