Department of Educational & Counselling Psychology and Special Education, University of British Columbia, Canada.
J Sch Psychol. 2012 Jun;50(3):403-19. doi: 10.1016/j.jsp.2011.11.004. Epub 2011 Dec 22.
The impact of baseline trend control on visual analyses of AB intervention graphs was examined with simulated data at various values of baseline trend, autocorrelation, and effect size. Participants included 202 undergraduate students with minimal training in visual analysis and 10 graduate students and faculty with more training and experience in visual analysis. In general, results were similar across both groups of participants. Without statistical adjustments to correct for baseline trend, Type I errors greatly increased as baseline trend increased. With corrections for baseline trend, fewer Type I errors were made. As trend increased, participants made fewer Type II errors on the unadjusted graphs as compared to the graphs with baseline trend control. The greater Type II error rate on adjusted graphs could be an artifact of study design (i.e., participants did not know if baseline trend control had been applied), and the impact of MASAJ on Type II errors needs to be explored in detail prior to more widespread use of the method. Implications for future use of baseline trend control techniques by educational professionals are discussed.
基线趋势控制对 AB 干预图视觉分析的影响，通过在不同基线趋势、自相关和效应大小值下的模拟数据进行了检验。参与者包括 202 名接受过视觉分析最少培训的本科生和 10 名接受过更多视觉分析培训和经验的研究生和教师。一般来说，两组参与者的结果相似。如果不进行统计调整以纠正基线趋势，随着基线趋势的增加，I 型错误会大大增加。通过纠正基线趋势，I 型错误的数量会减少。随着趋势的增加，与具有基线趋势控制的图形相比，参与者在未调整的图形上做出的 II 型错误更少。调整后的图形上较高的 II 型错误率可能是研究设计的一个特征（即，参与者不知道是否应用了基线趋势控制），并且在更广泛地使用该方法之前，需要详细探讨 MASAJ 对 II 型错误的影响。讨论了教育专业人员未来使用基线趋势控制技术的影响。
