Department of Civil Engineering, Steinman Hall, City College of New York, New York, NY 10031, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2013 Jan;50:312-22. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.05.009. Epub 2012 May 31.
Traffic fatalities and injuries constitute a major global public health problem and the United States has fallen behind other developed countries in traffic safety. Yet, New York City stands out as a traffic safety model in the nation with its low fatality rate and its significant reductions in various types of crashes. This study develops a safety framework that considers three principal axes that affect crashes: why, who, and where. While "why" concerns exposure, conflict, and speed, "who" and "where" consider the unique characteristics of the road users and the surrounding built environment. Grounded in this safety framework, the effectiveness of 13 safety countermeasures and street designs installed in New York City between 1990 and 2008 are evaluated using a two group pretest-posttest design. The potential regression-to-the-mean problem is addressed by applying the ANCOVA regression approach. The results show that signal related countermeasures that are designed to reduce conflicts: split phase timing, signal installations, all pedestrian phase, and increasing pedestrian crossing time, reduce crashes. Traffic calming measures, including road diets, are also found to have significant safety benefits. Countermeasures that are designed to alert drivers' cognitive attention, such as high visibility crosswalks and posted speed limit reduction signs, appear to have a lesser effect. The various safety countermeasures implemented in New York City considered all three important dimensions in the safety framework: why, who, and where. The study suggests these strategies are likely to contribute to the large reductions in crashes in New York City. We also demonstrate that a rigorous quasi-experimental design can be readily deployed in transportation safety evaluation studies.
交通死亡和伤害是一个全球性的主要公共卫生问题,而美国在交通安全方面已经落后于其他发达国家。然而,纽约市在全国范围内是一个交通安全的典范,其死亡率低,各类事故显著减少。本研究构建了一个考虑三个主要因素的安全框架,这三个因素影响着事故的发生:原因、人、地点。“原因”涉及暴露、冲突和速度,而“人”和“地点”则考虑道路使用者和周围建筑环境的独特特征。基于这个安全框架,本研究采用了两组前后测设计,评估了 1990 年至 2008 年期间在纽约市实施的 13 项安全措施和街道设计的效果。应用协方差分析(ANCOVA)回归方法解决潜在的回归均值问题。结果表明,旨在减少冲突的信号相关措施,如相位分割时间、信号安装、全行人相位和增加行人穿越时间,能减少事故。交通稳静化措施,包括道路缩窄,也被发现具有显著的安全效益。旨在提醒司机注意的措施,如高可见度的人行横道和限速标志降低,效果似乎较小。纽约市实施的各种安全措施考虑了安全框架的三个重要维度:原因、人、地点。研究表明,这些策略可能有助于减少纽约市的事故。我们还表明,严格的准实验设计可以在交通安全性评估研究中得到很好的应用。