University of Auckland, New Zealand Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand.
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2012 Jun;36(3):263-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2011.00812.x. Epub 2012 Jan 2.
To assess the usefulness of a national and a local system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease to planning and funding decision makers.
In an iterative process, an existing national model was populated with local data and presented to stakeholders in Counties Manukau, New Zealand. They explored the model's plausibility, usefulness and implications. Data were collected from 30 people using questionnaires, and from field notes and interviews; both were thematically analysed.
Potential users readily understood the model and actively engaged in discussing it. None disputed the overall model structure, but most wanted extensions to elaborate areas of specific interest to them. Local data made little qualitative difference to data interpretation but were nevertheless considered a necessary step to support confident local decisions.
Some limitations to the model and its use were recognised, but users could allow for these and still derive use from the model to qualitatively compare decision options.
The system dynamics modelling process is useful in complex systems and is likely to become established as part of the routinely used suite of tools used to support complex decisions in Counties Manukau District Health Board.
评估国家和地方心血管疾病系统动力学模型在规划和资金决策制定者中的实用性。
在迭代过程中，使用本地数据填充现有的国家模型，并将其呈现给新西兰曼努考县的利益相关者。他们探讨了模型的合理性、实用性和影响。通过问卷从 30 人、现场记录和访谈中收集数据，并对其进行主题分析。
潜在用户很容易理解模型并积极参与讨论。没有人对整体模型结构提出异议，但大多数人希望扩展到他们特别感兴趣的领域。本地数据对数据解释没有质的影响，但仍被认为是支持有信心的本地决策的必要步骤。
人们认识到模型及其使用存在一些局限性，但用户可以考虑到这些局限性，仍然可以从模型中获得定性比较决策选项的用途。
系统动力学建模过程在复杂系统中非常有用，并且可能会成为在曼努考县地区卫生委员会中用于支持复杂决策的常用工具套件的一部分。
