School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Herston, Brisbane, QLD, 4006, Australia.
School of Business, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia.
BMC Public Health. 2018 Mar 27;18(1):402. doi: 10.1186/s12889-018-5318-8.
Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health.
Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed.
We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges appeared unique to the application of system dynamics within the context of environmental health problems, but rather to the use of system dynamics in general.
This review reveals that while system dynamics modelling is increasingly being used to inform decision-making related to environmental health, applications are currently limited. Greater application of system dynamics within this context is needed before its benefits and limitations can be fully understood.
政策和决策过程经常受到环境健康问题的复杂性和动态性的挑战。系统动力学建模在许多不同领域都显示出了相当大的价值，有助于决策者理解和预测复杂系统的动态行为，以支持制定有效的政策行动。在本次范围审查中，我们调查了系统动力学建模是否以及在何种情况下被用于为与环境健康相关的政策或决策过程提供信息。
系统地搜索了四个电子数据库和灰色文献，以确定交叉领域的研究环境健康、系统动力学建模和决策。对初步筛选中确定的研究进行了进一步筛选，以确定其与背景、方法和应用相关的相关性。根据所有三个标准被认为“相关”或“高度相关”的研究被纳入本综述。分析了与在环境健康决策和政策背景下使用系统动力学的基本原理、影响和局限性相关的主要主题。
我们确定了数量有限的相关研究（n=15），其中三分之二是在 2011 年至 2016 年期间进行的。大多数应用发生在非卫生相关部门（n=9），包括交通、公共事业、水、住房、食品、农业以及城市和区域规划。应用主要针对微观层面（地方、社区或基层）的决策过程（n=9），对宏观层面（国家或国际）的决策关注较少。使用系统动力学的理由和系统动力学模型对决策过程的预期影响存在显著的异质性。确定了一系列与用户相关的、技术相关的和应用相关的局限性和挑战。报告的局限性或挑战似乎并非仅在环境健康问题背景下应用系统动力学时特有，而是在一般应用系统动力学时都存在。
本综述表明，尽管系统动力学建模越来越多地被用于为与环境健康相关的决策提供信息，但目前的应用仍然有限。在充分了解其优势和局限性之前，需要在这一背景下更广泛地应用系统动力学。
