A screening model for low bone mass in elderly Japanese men using quantitative ultrasound measurements: Fujiwara-Kyo Study.

Screening for low bone mass is important to prevent fragility fractures in men as well as women, although men show a much lower prevalence of osteoporosis than women. The purpose of this study was to establish a screening model for low bone mineral density (BMD) using a quantitative ultrasound parameter and easily obtained objective indices for elderly Japanese men. We examined 1633 men (65-84 yr old) who were subjects of the Fujiwara-Kyo Study. Speed of sound (SOS) at the calcaneus was determined, and BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at the lumbar spine (LS), total hip (TH), and femoral neck (FN). Low BMD was defined as >1 standard deviation below the young adult mean, in accordance with World Health Organization criteria. We performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify a better screening model incorporating SOS and determined the optimal cutoff value using Youden index. Prevalences of low BMD at the 3 skeletal sites were 27.8% (LS), 33.5% (TH), 48.6% (FN), and 43.3% at either LS or TH. The greatest area under the ROC curve (0.806, 95% confidence interval: 0.785-0.828) and smallest Akaike's information criterion were obtained in the multivariate model incorporating SOS, age, height, and weight for predicting low BMD at all skeletal sites. This model predicted low BMD at TH with the sensitivity of 0.726 and specificity of 0.739, whereas a similar model predicted low BMD at LS with much lower validity. We conclude that the multivariate model for TH could be used to screen for low BMD in elderly Japanese men.