Center for Ecology and Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2012 Sep;15(9):1050-7. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01829.x. Epub 2012 Jul 2.
Disease has caused striking declines in wildlife and threatens numerous species with extinction. Theory suggests that the ecology and density-dependence of transmission dynamics can determine the probability of disease-caused extinction, but few empirical studies have simultaneously examined multiple factors influencing disease impact. We show, in hibernating bats infected with Geomyces destructans, that impacts of disease on solitary species were lower in smaller populations, whereas in socially gregarious species declines were equally severe in populations spanning four orders of magnitude. However, as these gregarious species declined, we observed decreases in social group size that reduced the likelihood of extinction. In addition, disease impacts in these species increased with humidity and temperature such that the coldest and driest roosts provided initial refuge from disease. These results expand our theoretical framework and provide an empirical basis for determining which host species are likely to be driven extinct while management action is still possible.
疾病导致野生动物数量显著减少，并使许多物种面临灭绝威胁。理论表明，传播动力学的生态学和密度依赖性可以决定疾病导致灭绝的概率，但很少有实证研究同时检查影响疾病影响的多个因素。我们在感染 Geomyces destructans 的冬眠蝙蝠中表明，在较小的种群中，疾病对独居物种的影响较低，而在群居物种中，种群数量跨越四个数量级时，下降幅度同样严重。然而，随着这些群居物种的减少，我们观察到社会群体规模的缩小，这降低了灭绝的可能性。此外，这些物种中的疾病影响随着湿度和温度的增加而增加，因此最寒冷和最干燥的栖息地为疾病提供了最初的避难所。这些结果扩展了我们的理论框架，并为确定哪些宿主物种可能因管理行动仍然可行而被灭绝提供了实证基础。
