Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Emory Voice Center, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia 30308, USA.
Laryngoscope. 2013 Jan;123(1):97-102. doi: 10.1002/lary.23476. Epub 2012 Jul 2.
OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS: To establish the effects the changing population demographics in the United States are having on the general practice otolaryngologists.
Retrospective analysis of 131,070 consecutive new patient visits at a large private practice otolaryngology group from 2004 to 2010.
Billing records for new patient visits from 2004 to 2010 were reviewed. Analysis of patient age, diagnosis, and year of presentation was completed to determine changes in patient demographics and frequencies of diagnoses stratified by age groups. Predictive analysis was performed to determine future trends in patient demographics.
Geriatric patients showed a statistically significant increase from 14.3% of the patient population in 2004 to 17.9% in 2010. Predictive analysis shows that at the current rate, almost 30% of all patients seen by 2030 would be over the age of 65 years. The most common pathologies seen in geriatric patients were also different than that of other age groups, with the five most common geriatric diagnoses being otologic in nature. Geriatric patients also have an overall increased proportion of otologic diagnoses, with 73% of all geriatric diagnoses being otologic, compared to just 32% of those aged 18 to 45 years.
Our data show that the changing population is causing the frequency and type of disease seen by general otolaryngologists to change. This information may be useful in structuring both residency training curricula as well as licensing and recertification exams to ensure otolaryngologists are properly prepared to care for their future patient population.
目的/假设:确定美国人口结构变化对普通耳鼻喉科医生的影响。
对一家大型私人耳鼻喉科集团 2004 年至 2010 年的 131070 例连续新患者就诊进行回顾性分析。
对 2004 年至 2010 年新患者就诊的计费记录进行了回顾。对患者年龄、诊断和就诊年份进行了分析,以确定患者人群和按年龄组划分的诊断频率的变化。进行预测分析以确定患者人群的未来趋势。
老年患者的比例从 2004 年的 14.3%到 2010 年的 17.9%呈统计学显著增加。预测分析显示,按照目前的速度,到 2030 年,近 30%的患者将超过 65 岁。老年患者中最常见的病理类型也与其他年龄组不同,最常见的五种老年诊断是耳科疾病。老年患者的总体耳科诊断比例也有所增加,所有老年诊断中有 73%是耳科疾病,而 18 至 45 岁的患者只有 32%。
我们的数据表明,人口结构的变化正在导致普通耳鼻喉科医生所看到的疾病的频率和类型发生变化。这些信息可能有助于构建住院医师培训课程以及执照和再认证考试,以确保耳鼻喉科医生为照顾未来的患者群体做好充分准备。