Evans L
Operating Sciences Department, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, MI.
Accid Anal Prev. 1990 Dec;22(6):587-602. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(90)90030-o.
The vast literature on alcohol's effect on traffic safety does not contain even a moderately satisfactory answer to one of the most basic questions, namely "What is the fraction of all traffic fatalities attributable to alcohol use?" A published estimate of 23.7% based on an erroneous calculation has been widely quoted. This paper combines 1987 Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) data from 26 states that recorded blood alcohol concentrations for over 84% of fatally injured drivers with published estimates on how alcohol affects crash risk. By categorizing all traffic fatalities as either nonoccupants of vehicles, or occupants killed in single-vehicle, two-vehicle or three-or-more-vehicle crashes, and developing calculation procedures appropriate for each category, the fraction of all fatalities due to alcohol was inferred. The main finding was that eliminating alcohol would reduce traffic fatalities by (47 +/- 4)%. It was also concluded that alcohol use changes from 1982 to 1987 have reduced traffic fatalities by 12% (6,400 fatalities), which helps explain the absence of the fatality increase predicted because of a buoyant economy. Reducing the fraction of fatalities due to alcohol from the 1987 value of 47% to 42% (say) would reduce all traffic fatalities by 8%.
关于酒精对交通安全影响的大量文献，对于最基本的问题之一，即“所有交通死亡事故中可归因于饮酒的比例是多少？”，甚至都没有一个还算令人满意的答案。一个基于错误计算得出的23.7%的已发表估计值被广泛引用。本文将来自26个州的1987年致命事故报告系统（FARS）数据与已发表的关于酒精如何影响撞车风险的估计值相结合，这些州记录了超过84%的致命受伤司机的血液酒精浓度。通过将所有交通死亡事故分为车辆非乘客，或在单车、两车或三车及以上车辆碰撞中死亡的乘客，并制定适用于每个类别的计算程序，推断出所有死亡事故中因酒精导致的比例。主要发现是，消除酒精将使交通死亡事故减少（47±4）%。研究还得出结论，1982年至1987年饮酒情况的变化使交通死亡事故减少了12%（6400起死亡事故），这有助于解释为何没有出现因经济繁荣而预测的死亡人数增加的情况。将因酒精导致的死亡事故比例从1987年的47%降至42%（比如说），将使所有交通死亡事故减少8%。
