Drug Ther Bull. 2012 Jul;50(7):81-4. doi: 10.1136/dtb.2012.06.0118.
The comparative cost-effectiveness of interventions is a fundamental consideration of health technology assessment (HTA) in the UK.(1) The use of modelling to extrapolate benefits to patients and costs over a specified time period is a common technique in cost-effectiveness analyses. All modelling techniques, by their nature, are subject to different levels of uncertainty. Assessment and understanding of the level and impact of this uncertainty is a fundamental part of the decision-making process. In this article, we build on our previous article A guide to health economic evaluations and discuss different modelling approaches to cost-effectiveness analysis and the importance of uncertainty.(2)
干预措施的成本效益比较是英国卫生技术评估（HTA）的一项基本考量因素。（1）在成本效益分析中，利用模型推断特定时间段内患者的获益和成本是一种常用技术。所有模型技术本质上都存在不同程度的不确定性。评估和理解这种不确定性的程度及其影响是决策过程的基本组成部分。在本文中，我们以之前的文章《卫生经济评估指南》为基础，讨论成本效益分析的不同建模方法以及不确定性的重要性。（2）
