Barton Pelham, Bryan Stirling, Robinson Suzanne
Health Economics Facility, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
J Health Serv Res Policy. 2004 Apr;9(2):110-8. doi: 10.1258/135581904322987535.
To provide an overview of alternative approaches to modelling in economic evaluation, and to highlight situations where each of the alternative modelling techniques should be employed.
A review of the available approaches to modelling in the economic evaluation of health care interventions with a leading discussion of examples of published studies leading to guidance in the selection of an appropriate approach in different circumstances.
The main approaches to modelling used in economic evaluations in health care are decision trees, Markov models and individual sampling models. These methods assume independence of individuals within the model. Where interaction between individuals is important, other methods such as discrete-event simulation or system dynamics are preferable.
The paper highlights the crucial question to be answered when selecting the approach to modelling: can the individuals being simulated in the model be regarded as independent? This issue is very commonly not recognised by analysts but is fundamental to the appropriate application of modelling in economic evaluation.
概述经济评估中建模的替代方法，并强调应采用每种替代建模技术的情形。
回顾医疗保健干预措施经济评估中可用的建模方法，并重点讨论已发表研究的实例，从而为在不同情况下选择合适方法提供指导。
医疗保健经济评估中使用的主要建模方法是决策树、马尔可夫模型和个体抽样模型。这些方法假定模型内个体相互独立。当个体间的相互作用很重要时，离散事件模拟或系统动力学等其他方法更可取。
本文强调了选择建模方法时要回答的关键问题：模型中模拟的个体能否被视为相互独立？分析师常常未认识到这个问题，但它对于在经济评估中正确应用建模至关重要。
