Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave. West, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1, Canada.
Risk Anal. 2012 Nov;32(11):1935-55. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01867.x. Epub 2012 Jul 15.
The domain of risk analysis is expanded to consider strategic interactions among multiple participants in the management of extreme risk in a system of systems. These risks are fraught with complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty, which pose challenges in how participants perceive, understand, and manage risk of extreme events. In the case of extreme events affecting a system of systems, cause-and-effect relationships among initiating events and losses may be difficult to ascertain due to interactions of multiple systems and participants (complexity). Moreover, selection of threats, hazards, and consequences on which to focus may be unclear or contentious to participants within multiple interacting systems (ambiguity). Finally, all types of risk, by definition, involve potential losses due to uncertain events (uncertainty). Therefore, risk analysis of extreme events affecting a system of systems should address complex, ambiguous, and uncertain aspects of extreme risk. To accomplish this, a system of systems engineering methodology for risk analysis is proposed as a general approach to address extreme risk in a system of systems. Our contribution is an integrative and adaptive systems methodology to analyze risk such that strategic interactions among multiple participants are considered. A practical application of the system of systems engineering methodology is demonstrated in part by a case study of a maritime infrastructure system of systems interface, namely, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.
风险分析的领域扩展到考虑系统中的多个参与者在管理极端风险时的战略相互作用。这些风险充满了复杂性、模糊性和不确定性，这给参与者如何感知、理解和管理极端事件的风险带来了挑战。在影响系统的极端事件的情况下，由于多个系统和参与者的相互作用（复杂性），起始事件和损失之间的因果关系可能难以确定。此外，由于多个相互作用的系统内的参与者之间存在争议，因此，选择要关注的威胁、危害和后果可能不清楚或存在争议（模糊性）。最后，根据定义，所有类型的风险都涉及由于不确定事件而导致的潜在损失（不确定性）。因此，影响系统的极端事件的风险分析应解决极端风险的复杂、模糊和不确定方面。为此，提出了一种系统工程方法论来进行风险分析，作为一种在系统中处理极端风险的一般方法。我们的贡献是一种综合和自适应的系统方法来分析风险，以便考虑多个参与者之间的战略相互作用。通过对马六甲海峡和新加坡海峡等海上基础设施系统的系统界面的案例研究，部分展示了系统工程方法论的实际应用。
