Ecol Evol. 2012 Mar;2(3):593-614. doi: 10.1002/ece3.85.
This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares to the uncertainty induced by various climates. The analysis was based on a set of 10,000 Monte Carlo ensemble Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) simulations for the northern high latitudes (45(o)N and polewards) for the period 1900-2100. The LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) was run under contemporary and future climates from four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and six climate scenarios, X901M, X902L, X903H, X904M, X905L, and X906H from the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In the current dynamic vegetation model, some parameters are more important than others in determining the vegetation distribution. Parameters that control plant carbon uptake and light-use efficiency have the predominant influence on the vegetation distribution of both woody and herbaceous plant functional types. The relative importance of different parameters varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by climate inputs. In addition to climate, these parameters play an important role in determining the vegetation distribution in the region. The parameter-based uncertainties contribute most to the total uncertainty. The current warming conditions lead to a complexity of vegetation responses in the region. Temperate trees will be more sensitive to climate variability, compared with boreal forest trees and C3 perennial grasses. This sensitivity would result in a unanimous northward greenness migration due to anomalous warming in the northern high latitudes. Temporally, boreal needleleaved evergreen plants are projected to decline considerably, and a large portion of C3 perennial grass is projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century. In contrast, the area of temperate trees would increase, especially under the most extreme A1FI scenario. As the warming continues, the northward greenness expansion in the Arctic region could continue.
本研究旨在评估在 21 世纪，高纬度植被在不同气候情景下可能会如何响应，重点分析模型参数引起的不确定性，以及这种不确定性与不同气候引起的不确定性相比如何。该分析基于一组 10000 个蒙特卡罗 Lund-Potsdam-Jena（LPJ）集合模拟，用于研究 1900 年至 2100 年期间高纬度地区（北纬 45 度及以北地区）的情况。LPJ 动态全球植被模型（LPJ-DGVM）在 Hadley 中心通用环流模型（GCM）下的四个特别报告排放情景（SRES），即 A1FI、A2、B1 和 B2 下，以及马萨诸塞州理工学院的综合全球系统模型（IGSM）的六个气候情景 X901M、X902L、X903H、X904M、X905L 和 X906H 下运行。在当前的动态植被模型中，一些参数在确定植被分布方面比其他参数更重要。控制植物碳吸收和光利用效率的参数对木本和草本植物功能类型的植被分布都有主要影响。不同参数的相对重要性随时间和空间而变化，并且受到气候输入的影响。除了气候之外，这些参数在确定该地区的植被分布方面也起着重要作用。基于参数的不确定性对总不确定性的贡献最大。当前的变暖条件导致该地区的植被反应变得复杂。与北方森林树木和 C3 多年生草本植物相比，温带树木将对气候变异性更加敏感。这种敏感性将导致由于高纬度地区异常变暖，北方的绿色程度一致向北迁移。从时间上看，北方的针叶常绿植物预计会大幅减少，而大部分 C3 多年生草本植物预计到 21 世纪末将消失。相比之下，温带树木的面积将会增加，特别是在最极端的 A1FI 情景下。随着变暖的继续，北极地区的向北绿色扩张可能会继续。
