School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2022 May;28(10):3275-3292. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16121. Epub 2022 Feb 24.
The boreal forest biome is a major component of Earth's biosphere and climate system that is projected to shift northward due to continued climate change over the coming century. Indicators of a biome shift will likely first be evident along the climatic margins of the boreal forest and include changes in vegetation productivity, mortality, and recruitment, as well as overall vegetation greenness. However, the extent to which a biome shift is already underway remains unclear because of the local nature of most field studies, sparsity of systematic ground-based ecological monitoring, and reliance on coarse resolution satellite observations. Here, we evaluated early indicators of a boreal forest biome shift using four decades of moderate resolution (30 m) satellite observations and biogeoclimatic spatial datasets. Specifically, we quantified interannual trends in annual maximum vegetation greenness using an ensemble of vegetation indices derived from Landsat observations at 100,000 sample sites in areas without signs of recent disturbance. We found vegetation greenness increased (greened) at 38 [29, 42] % and 22 [15, 26] % of sample sites from 1985 to 2019 and 2000 to 2019, whereas vegetation greenness decreased (browned) at 13 [9, 15] % and 15 [13, 19] % of sample sites during these respective periods [95% Monte Carlo confidence intervals]. Greening was thus 3.0 [2.6, 3.5] and 1.5 [0.8, 2.0] times more common than browning and primarily occurred in cold sparsely treed areas with high soil nitrogen and moderate summer warming. Conversely, browning primarily occurred in the climatically warmest margins of both the boreal forest biome and major forest types (e.g., evergreen conifer forests), especially in densely treed areas where summers became warmer and drier. These macroecological trends reflect underlying shifts in vegetation productivity, mortality, and recruitment that are consistent with early stages of a boreal biome shift.
北方森林生物群系是地球生物圈和气候系统的主要组成部分,预计在未来一个世纪由于持续的气候变化将向北迁移。生物群系迁移的迹象可能首先在北方森林的气候边缘显现出来,包括植被生产力、死亡率和繁殖率的变化,以及整体植被绿色度的变化。然而,由于大多数实地研究的局部性质、系统地面生态监测的稀疏性以及对粗分辨率卫星观测的依赖,北方森林生物群系迁移已经在进行的程度仍不清楚。在这里,我们使用 40 年的中分辨率(30 米)卫星观测和生物地理气候空间数据集来评估北方森林生物群系迁移的早期指标。具体来说,我们使用从 Landsat 观测中提取的植被指数集合,在 100,000 个没有最近干扰迹象的样本点的区域中,量化了年际最大植被绿色度的趋势。我们发现,1985 年至 2019 年和 2000 年至 2019 年,38[29,42]%和 22[15,26]%的样本点的植被绿色度增加(变绿),而 13[9,15]%和 15[13,19]%的样本点的植被绿色度减少(变褐)[95%蒙特卡罗置信区间]。因此,变绿比变褐更常见,分别为 3.0[2.6,3.5]和 1.5[0.8,2.0]倍,主要发生在高土壤氮和中度夏季变暖的寒冷稀疏树木区域。相反,变褐主要发生在北方森林生物群系和主要森林类型(如常绿针叶林)的最温暖气候边缘,尤其是在夏季变得更温暖和干燥的树木繁茂地区。这些宏观生态趋势反映了植被生产力、死亡率和繁殖率的潜在变化,与北方生物群系迁移的早期阶段一致。