Department of Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA.
Am J Public Health. 2012 Oct;102(10):1951-6. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2012.300658. Epub 2012 Aug 16.
I explored the hypothesis that economic activity has a significant impact on exposure to air pollution and ultimately human health.
I used county-level employment statistics in California (1980-2000), along with major regulatory periods and other controlling factors, to estimate local concentrations of the coefficient of haze, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide using a mixed regression model approach.
The model explained between 33% and 48% of the variability in air pollution levels as estimated by the overall R(2) values. The relationship between employment measures and air pollution was statistically significant, suggesting that air quality improves during economic downturns. Additionally, major air quality regulations played a significant role in reducing air pollution levels over the study period.
This study provides important evidence of a role for the economy in understanding human exposure to environmental pollution. The evidence further suggests that the impact of environmental regulations are likely to be overstated when they occur during recessionary periods, and understated when they play out during periods of economic growth.
我探讨了经济活动对空气污染暴露及最终对人类健康产生重大影响的假设。
我使用加利福尼亚州的县一级就业统计数据（1980-2000 年），并结合主要监管时期和其他控制因素，采用混合回归模型方法来估算系数霾、一氧化碳和二氧化氮的当地浓度。
该模型通过整体 R² 值解释了空气污染水平变化的 33%至 48%。就业措施与空气污染之间的关系具有统计学意义，表明在经济衰退期间空气质量会得到改善。此外，主要的空气质量法规在研究期间对降低空气污染水平发挥了重要作用。
本研究为经济在理解人类暴露于环境污染方面的作用提供了重要证据。这一证据进一步表明，在经济衰退期间实施环境法规的影响可能被夸大，而在经济增长期间实施环境法规的影响则可能被低估。
