Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
Water Sci Technol. 2012;66(8):1766-73. doi: 10.2166/wst.2012.346.
Population growth and urbanization in the last decades have increased the vulnerability of properties and societies in flood-prone areas. Vulnerability analysis is one of the main factors used to determine the necessary measures of flood risk reduction in floodplains. At present, the vulnerability of natural disasters is analyzed by defining the various physical and social indices. This study presents a model based on a fuzzy rule-based system to address various ambiguities and uncertainties from natural variability, and human knowledge and preferences in vulnerability analysis. The proposed method is applied for a small watershed as a case study and the obtained results are compared with one of the index approaches. Both approaches present the same ranking for the sub-basin's vulnerability in the watershed. Finally, using the scores of vulnerability in different sub-basins, a vulnerability map of the watershed is presented.
在过去几十年中，人口增长和城市化增加了洪泛区财产和社会的脆弱性。脆弱性分析是确定洪泛区减少洪水风险所需措施的主要因素之一。目前，通过定义各种物理和社会指标来分析自然灾害的脆弱性。本研究提出了一种基于模糊规则系统的模型，以解决脆弱性分析中自然变异性、人类知识和偏好带来的各种模糊性和不确定性。该方法应用于一个小流域作为案例研究，并将得到的结果与一种指数方法进行了比较。这两种方法在流域的子流域脆弱性方面给出了相同的排名。最后，根据不同子流域的脆弱性得分，给出了流域的脆弱性图。
