Simulations using a drug-disease modeling framework and phase II data predict phase III survival outcome in first-line non-small-cell lung cancer.

Simulations were performed for carboplatin/paclitaxel (C/P) plus motesanib or bevacizumab vs. C/P as first-line treatment for advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) using a published drug-disease model. With 700 patients in each arm, simulated hazard ratios for motesanib (0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-1.1) and bevacizumab (0.89; 95% CI, 0.73-1.1) agreed with results from the respective phase III studies but did not discriminate between failed and successful studies. The current model may require further enhancement to improve its utility for predicting phase III outcomes.