Mrdovic Igor, Savic Lidija, Lasica Ratko, Krljanac Gordana, Asanin Milika, Brdar Natasa, Djuricic Nemanja, Cvetinovic Natasa, Marinkovic Jelena, Perunicic Jovan
University of Belgrade, School of Medicine, Pasterova 2, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia.
Heart Vessels. 2013 Jul;28(4):424-33. doi: 10.1007/s00380-012-0276-z. Epub 2012 Sep 14.
Stent thrombosis (ST) is an important cause of death after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). This substudy aimed at evaluating the usefulness of the RISK-PCI score, originally developed for the prediction of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events, to predict the occurrence of ST after pPCI. We analyzed 1972 consecutive patients who underwent pPCI with stent implantation between February 2007 and December 2009. Early ST (EST), late ST (LST), and cumulative 1-year ST (CST) were the predefined end points. Definite, probable, and possible ST were included. Models discrimination and calibration to predict ST was tested using receiver-operating characteristics curves and the goodness-of-fit (GoF) test. Sensitivity analyses and 1000-resample bootstrapping were used to evaluate the model's performance. The rates of EST, LST, and CST were 4.6, 1.4, and 6.0 %, respectively. Compared with controls, the cumulative ST group was associated with much higher rates of adverse clinical outcomes at 30-day follow-up (adjusted odds ratio (OR) for death 6.45, adjusted OR for major bleeding 4.41) and at 12-month follow-up (adjusted OR for death 7.35, adjusted OR for major bleeding 4.56). Internal validation confirmed a reasonably good discrimination and calibration of the RISK-PCI score for the prediction of EST (area under the curve (AUC) 0.71, GoF 0.42), LST (AUC 0.69, GoF 0.36), and CST (AUC 0.70, GoF 0.22) after pPCI. ST after pPCI is associated with adverse 30-day and 1-year clinical outcomes. We conclude that the risk of ST could be accurately assessed using the RISK-PCI score, which might help in deciding upon measures aimed at preventing adverse prognosis.
支架血栓形成(ST)是直接经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(pPCI)后导致死亡的重要原因。本亚研究旨在评估最初用于预测30天主要不良心血管事件的RISK-PCI评分对预测pPCI后ST发生的有效性。我们分析了2007年2月至2009年12月期间连续接受pPCI并植入支架的1972例患者。早期ST(EST)、晚期ST(LST)和累积1年ST(CST)为预先设定的终点。包括明确的、很可能的和可能的ST。使用受试者工作特征曲线和拟合优度(GoF)检验来测试预测ST的模型辨别力和校准度。采用敏感性分析和1000次重采样自助法评估模型性能。EST、LST和CST的发生率分别为4.6%、1.4%和6.0%。与对照组相比,累积ST组在30天随访时不良临床结局发生率更高(死亡调整比值比(OR)为6.45,大出血调整OR为4.41),在12个月随访时也是如此(死亡调整OR为7.35,大出血调整OR为4.56)。内部验证证实,RISK-PCI评分对pPCI后EST(曲线下面积(AUC)为0.71,GoF为0.42)、LST(AUC为0.69,GoF为0.36)和CST(AUC为0.70, GoF为0.22)的预测具有较好的辨别力和校准度。pPCI后的ST与30天和1年不良临床结局相关。我们得出结论,使用RISK-PCI评分可以准确评估ST风险,这可能有助于决定采取预防不良预后的措施。