Prognostic value of acute fluid collections diagnosed by ultrasound in the early assessment of severity of acute pancreatitis.

PURPOSE

To evaluate the prognostic value of acute fluid collections (AFC) diagnosed by conventional transabdominal ultrasound in the early assessment of severity acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

We studied 128 consecutive patients with AP between March 2006 and March 2011. The predictor was the number of AFC. Outcome measure was the occurrence of complications. Abdominal sonogram, contrast-enhanced CT, and pancreatitis-specific clinical and laboratory findings were performed.

RESULTS

AFC were associated with complications (p < 0.0001), Balthazar grade (p = 0.004), Ranson score (p < 0.0001), and the majority of clinical, radiologic, and biochemical parameters for predicting complications of AP (p < 0.05). Univariate logistic regression also revealed significant association between the number of AFC and the occurrence of complications (OR 4.4; 95% CI 2.5-7.6). After the adjustment for covariates, AFC remained prognostic for complications and a cutoff point of >1 AFC was prognostic of their occurrence with 88% sensitivity and 82% specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

AFC are related to the clinical course of AP and can predict its severity