School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University College Cork, North Mall Campus, Distillery Fields, Cork, Ireland.
Prev Vet Med. 2013 Apr 1;109(1-2):128-35. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2012.08.016. Epub 2012 Sep 18.
Understanding factors affecting the number of badgers captured at and around badger setts (burrows) is of considerable applied importance. These factors could be used to estimate probable badger densities for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) control and also for monitoring badger populations from a conservation perspective. Furthermore, badger management and vaccination programs would benefit by increasing the probability of efficiently capturing the target badger populations. Within this context, it was investigated whether badger capture numbers can be estimated from field signs and previous capture histories. Badger capture records (initial and repeated capture numbers at a sett) from a large-scale removal program (405 km(2), 643 setts) were used. Univariable count models indicated that there were a number of significant potential predictors of badger numbers, during initial capture attempts. Using a multivariable zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model of initial captures we found that badger capture numbers were significantly affected by sett type, season, year, and the number of sett entrances in active use. Badger capture numbers were also affected by the total previous catch during repeated capture events and by the number of previous capture attempts. There was a significant negative trend in badger captures across events. Measures of the ability of these models to estimate badger captures suggested that the models might be useful in estimating badger numbers across a population; however the confidence intervals associated with these predictions were large.
了解影响在獾巢（洞穴）及其周围捕获獾数量的因素具有重要的实际意义。这些因素可用于估计牛结核病（bTB）控制的可能的獾密度，也可用于从保护角度监测獾种群。此外，通过增加有效捕获目标獾种群的概率，獾管理和疫苗接种计划将受益。在这种情况下，研究了是否可以从现场迹象和以前的捕获历史来估计獾的捕获数量。使用了一项大规模清除计划（405 平方公里，643 个巢穴）的獾捕获记录（初始和重复捕获巢穴中的个体数量）。单变量计数模型表明，在初始捕获尝试中，有许多潜在的重要预测因素。我们使用初始捕获的多变量零膨胀泊松（ZIP）模型发现，獾的捕获数量受巢穴类型、季节、年份以及正在使用的巢穴入口数量的显著影响。在重复捕获事件中，以前的总捕获数量以及以前的捕获尝试次数也会影响獾的捕获数量。在整个事件中，獾的捕获数量呈显著负趋势。这些模型估计獾捕获数量的能力的衡量标准表明，这些模型可能有助于在整个种群中估计獾的数量；但是，这些预测的置信区间很大。
