Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, 1-1-1 Nojihigashi, Kusatsu, Shiga 525-8577, Japan.
Chaos. 2012 Sep;22(3):033106. doi: 10.1063/1.4731267.
We apply nonlinear forecasting to the time series of the flame front instability induced by radiative heat loss to test for the short-term predictability and long-term unpredictability characteristic of deterministic chaos in flame front instability. Our results indicate that the flame front instability represents high-dimensional chaos generated via the period-doubling cascade process reported in our previous study [H. Gotoda, K. Michigami, K. Ikeda, and T. Miyano, Combust Theory Modell. 14, 479 (2010)], while its short-term behavior is predictable using a local nonlinear predictor based on the Sugihara-May method [H. Gotoda, H. Nikimoto, T. Miyano, and S. Tachibana, Chaos 20, 013124 (2011); G. Sugihara and R. M. May, Nature 344, 734 (1990)] as well as a generalized radial basis function network as a global nonlinear predictor. The feasibility of a new approach based on short-term prediction is also discussed in this work from the practical viewpoint of combustion systems.
我们将非线性预测应用于由热辐射损失引起的火焰前沿不稳定性的时间序列，以测试火焰前沿不稳定性中确定性混沌的短期可预测性和长期不可预测性特征。我们的结果表明，火焰前沿不稳定性代表了通过我们之前研究中报道的倍周期分岔过程产生的高维混沌[H. Gotoda, K. Michigami, K. Ikeda 和 T. Miyano, Combust Theory Modell. 14, 479 (2010)]，而其短期行为可以使用基于 Sugihara-May 方法的局部非线性预测器[H. Gotoda, H. Nikimoto, T. Miyano 和 S. Tachibana, Chaos 20, 013124 (2011); G. Sugihara 和 R. M. May, Nature 344, 734 (1990)]以及广义径向基函数网络作为全局非线性预测器进行预测。本文还从燃烧系统的实际角度讨论了基于短期预测的新方法的可行性。
