Simulating the maintenance of a rare fish morph experiencing negative frequency dependent selection.

Empirical work assessing the maintenance of rare genotypes in natural populations is difficult over very long time scales. Skirting this problematic issue is possible with theory and simulations. Major theoretical constructs, including mutation-selection balance and balancing selection, explain the theoretical maintenance of rare genotypes, and the occurrence of multiple, rare genotypes over time. Additionally, numerical simulations are valuable tools for assessing evolving biological systems because they allow for monitoring systems over long time scales, as well as for controlling model parameters, thus contributing to the exploration of system dynamics that cannot be assessed in nature. Here we employed numerical simulations to explore the importance of several biological factors that contribute to the maintenance of a fish color-pattern polymorphism. We present a numerical model of a two-morph fish polymorphism that allowed us to test the sensitivity of the rare morph's persistence and the population's stability to multiple parameters. Our simulations ran over 10,000 years (where one year is approximately one generation) and demonstrated the maintenance of a stable polymorphism with a rare morph which persisted at a frequency of ~10(-2), which is in-fact the frequency of the rare, mottled black mosquitofish morph in natural populations. This pigmentation polymorphism is stable, independent of changes in population size, but can be destabilized with very high predation when coupled with very low birth rates. Employing models with empirical fitness estimates is a valuable tool for monitoring rare vertebrate morphs in nature, however few studies exist that have accomplished this task. Our approach can be adapted for modeling rare morphs (particularly in additional live-bearing fishes like sailfin mollies) that also harbor rare, pigmentation morphs within large populations.