Bhat P N
Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum, India.
Demography. 1990 Feb;27(1):149-63.
This article outlines a method of estimating probabilities of gross transfers from one age to another due to misreporting of age. An essential ingredient in the computation is the information on the true age structure of the population, which may be estimated by using generalized stable population relationships. The method consists essentially of iteratively adjusting rows and columns of an initial guess matrix so that the application of the resultant transition matrix to the true age distribution produces the recorded age distribution. The initial guess matrix can be either empirically based or theoretically derived. The method is illustrated by using data on India, 1971-1981. The application reveals that in India, although the tendency to exaggerate age is strong at adult ages, the bias does not increase appreciably at older ages, as is commonly believed.
本文概述了一种估计因年龄误报导致从一个年龄组到另一个年龄组的总转移概率的方法。计算中的一个关键要素是关于人口真实年龄结构的信息，这可以通过使用广义稳定人口关系来估计。该方法主要包括对初始猜测矩阵的行和列进行迭代调整，以便将所得的转移矩阵应用于真实年龄分布时能产生记录的年龄分布。初始猜测矩阵既可以基于经验得出，也可以从理论推导而来。通过使用1971 - 1981年印度的数据对该方法进行了说明。应用结果表明，在印度，尽管在成年年龄段夸大年龄的倾向很强，但如人们普遍认为的那样，在老年阶段偏差并不会显著增加。
